* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ALMA EP031996 06/26/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 14 15 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 19 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 239 254 277 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) N/A N/A 16.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) N/A N/A 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 80 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 79 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 70 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 44 44 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.6 17.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.2 102.5 102.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -5. -9. -13. -21. -25. -30. -35. -36. -37. -40. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -6. -9. -14. -23. -31. -41. -51. -57. -61. -64. -69.