* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ALMA EP031996 06/26/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 28 27 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 28 27 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 26 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 17 17 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 18 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 241 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.0 20.0 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 59 59 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 80 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 68 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 74 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 100 104 199 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.1 16.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.5 103.1 103.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -2. -3. -5. -10. -16. -23. -31. -36. -40. -43. -48.