* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ALMA EP031996 06/26/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 23 19 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 23 19 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 19 21 13 13 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 20 19 16 15 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 5 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 239 266 279 273 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 12.9 12.9 11.3 20.3 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 58 58 57 61 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.5 -53.4 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 79 80 79 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 5 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 45 66 81 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 63 67 71 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 77 84 85 111 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.3 17.5 17.4 17.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.7 103.1 103.5 103.7 104.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -6. -9. -7. -11. -14. -17. -21. -21. -23. -24. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -11. -18. -26. -34. -43. -48. -53. -56. -61.