* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ALMA EP031996 06/26/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 30 33 34 48 56 63 56 46 39 36 30 V (KT) LAND 30 29 30 33 34 48 56 63 56 36 31 29 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 24 22 20 18 17 17 17 22 21 24 26 V (KT) G09R 14 18 22 26 25 33 37 44 33 33 27 24 15 SHEAR (KT) 18 19 18 21 19 12 6 12 6 3 4 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 6 6 10 2 -1 1 13 11 8 5 7 SHEAR DIR 250 260 280 276 266 230 301 258 306 66 44 199 205 SST (C) 12.9 27.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 22.7 8.5 15.8 8.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 59 139 163 165 163 163 161 161 91 62 61 58 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.8 -53.9 -53.4 -54.3 -53.3 -54.0 -52.7 -53.5 -52.8 -53.4 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 14 12 11 11 10 9 11 9 12 9 13 10 16 700-500 MB RH 78 80 84 86 88 83 82 81 80 76 78 73 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 8 10 10 20 21 24 18 13 11 10 4 850 MB ENV VOR 28 59 93 126 121 133 118 115 106 107 88 83 73 200 MB DIV 49 68 90 135 185 145 157 151 186 116 48 39 34 LAND (KM) 77 133 219 351 393 392 300 257 11 -31 -10 -24 -82 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 16.8 15.9 14.0 12.8 12.2 13.0 13.4 15.7 18.6 20.8 21.7 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 102.6 102.7 102.5 101.3 99.6 95.0 96.0 96.5 95.8 95.8 97.2 97.8 98.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 16 21 18 15 7 7 14 13 11 3 10 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 21. 25. 21. 19. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -15. -15. -14. -13. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 17. 21. 26. 19. 12. 8. 6. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 3. 4. 18. 26. 33. 26. 16. 9. 6. 0.