* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ALMA EP031996 06/26/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 31 35 34 34 33 31 29 27 25 26 26 V (KT) LAND 30 29 31 35 34 34 33 31 29 27 25 26 26 V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 24 23 21 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 17 21 23 30 20 17 17 17 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 20 19 15 15 18 26 27 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 5 5 10 4 4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 245 269 270 264 283 286 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.2 27.6 29.5 29.4 26.0 29.1 29.0 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 91 136 155 156 120 154 152 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.7 -53.5 -52.9 -54.0 -53.4 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 12 10 11 11 9 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 79 83 81 81 81 81 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 10 13 10 9 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 68 104 116 117 88 109 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 66 74 107 115 117 88 80 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 111 135 166 168 137 201 299 399 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 16.8 16.5 16.5 16.9 16.8 16.4 15.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.7 103.0 102.7 103.0 103.4 104.4 105.4 105.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 1 4 3 7 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 23. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -2. -5. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -4. -4.