* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * SIX EP061996 07/05/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 33 33 33 30 27 24 22 20 20 19 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 33 33 33 30 27 24 22 20 20 19 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 32 32 30 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 24 23 18 14 10 11 9 8 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 25 23 18 14 15 12 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -2 -1 0 0 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 278 271 268 269 264 262 272 331 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.1 26.0 25.7 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 132 128 122 120 117 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 72 71 66 63 67 62 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 10 9 8 7 6 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 51 50 38 41 51 57 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 27 -1 2 29 0 23 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 463 373 369 421 400 382 335 324 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.9 18.5 18.9 19.3 19.5 20.0 20.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.8 108.2 108.6 109.4 110.0 110.6 110.9 110.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 8 8 5 3 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):326/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 732 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -10. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -0. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11.