* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * BERTHA AL021996 07/05/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 37 40 47 54 63 69 76 80 83 89 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 37 40 47 54 63 69 76 80 83 89 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 32 33 35 38 43 50 57 63 67 V (KT) G10R 40 32 38 33 33 40 43 43 52 48 51 56 54 SHEAR (KT) 5 4 9 14 15 17 12 15 19 18 23 24 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 18 10 4 0 -1 2 -1 -5 -3 2 -1 4 1 SHEAR DIR 209 218 212 231 230 196 164 142 130 116 111 110 61 SST (C) 27.8 27.2 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.7 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 133 126 124 122 124 128 126 128 130 129 130 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 174 153 137 131 127 126 126 120 122 122 120 123 122 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.2 -55.2 -55.0 -55.3 -55.7 -55.5 -55.7 -55.2 -55.1 -55.1 -55.3 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 11 13 12 13 700-500 MB RH 79 78 77 77 76 66 60 55 53 54 52 52 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 20 18 18 20 21 24 25 27 27 28 31 850 MB ENV VOR 25 22 23 46 46 31 14 -14 -4 5 0 0 7 200 MB DIV 117 122 113 101 101 38 39 22 41 87 74 48 87 LAND (KM) 1529 1523 1569 1404 1299 1200 1182 1064 945 854 707 500 343 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 10.3 11.2 11.9 12.5 14.2 15.7 16.4 17.0 17.5 18.1 19.0 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 32.8 36.2 38.7 41.2 43.1 46.7 50.2 53.0 55.0 57.1 59.0 61.0 63.3 STM SPEED (KT) 36 31 26 22 20 19 16 11 11 10 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 17. 24. 33. 39. 46. 50. 53. 59.