* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * BERTHA AL021996 07/08/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 73 77 80 85 90 93 98 98 100 98 94 V (KT) LAND 65 68 73 77 80 85 90 93 98 98 100 98 74 V (KT) LGE mod 65 68 70 73 76 81 85 88 90 88 84 79 57 V (KT) G02R 49 55 50 48 48 48 57 62 61 56 59 62 55 SHEAR (KT) 11 12 12 13 17 11 8 5 7 13 14 25 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 5 4 3 0 11 8 6 8 7 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 96 57 45 24 28 74 36 128 169 159 109 76 47 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.9 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.1 27.2 11.2 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 135 134 134 134 137 141 134 131 125 129 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 132 131 130 128 128 129 132 119 114 109 114 66 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.9 -54.9 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -53.4 -53.1 -52.4 -52.8 -52.1 -52.9 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 13 13 13 12 14 12 13 12 11 8 9 700-500 MB RH 56 55 57 54 52 54 52 52 57 63 68 63 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 29 30 30 31 29 30 30 33 32 34 34 35 850 MB ENV VOR 29 29 40 45 47 19 1 -31 35 54 54 23 2 200 MB DIV 97 65 52 89 69 0 17 10 4 53 75 62 69 LAND (KM) 621 415 243 95 77 143 311 406 422 343 419 224 -57 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.7 19.2 20.5 22.6 24.3 26.4 28.0 29.7 32.3 35.7 LONG(DEG W) 59.8 61.7 63.3 64.8 66.2 68.7 71.3 73.8 75.8 76.7 76.5 76.7 76.7 STM SPEED (KT) 19 17 15 15 14 16 15 15 10 9 10 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):284/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 4. 7. 8. 9. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 15. 20. 25. 28. 33. 33. 35. 33. 29.