* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * BERTHA AL021996 07/08/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 74 80 84 90 95 99 103 102 104 100 97 V (KT) LAND 65 69 74 80 84 90 95 99 103 102 104 100 69 V (KT) LGE mod 65 68 72 76 80 87 91 95 97 96 90 83 55 V (KT) G06R 48 51 52 53 54 57 55 58 59 56 57 57 52 SHEAR (KT) 9 10 7 6 9 6 2 1 13 24 25 28 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 4 2 3 6 6 11 0 4 1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 70 60 51 327 33 11 153 320 174 160 137 124 59 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 134 134 134 135 137 145 142 137 135 132 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 134 131 131 129 130 130 131 137 129 121 117 116 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.0 -54.8 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -53.4 -53.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -53.4 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 13 13 14 13 14 13 14 14 14 10 13 700-500 MB RH 57 54 56 55 52 53 49 51 51 56 59 58 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 32 33 34 33 32 31 33 33 32 34 31 31 850 MB ENV VOR 45 44 52 61 53 39 22 -8 33 55 73 33 27 200 MB DIV 88 57 23 62 32 20 39 0 46 24 62 50 79 LAND (KM) 685 501 347 182 71 107 212 332 412 241 191 148 -72 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.6 19.9 21.7 23.6 25.5 27.4 29.2 31.2 34.3 LONG(DEG W) 59.3 61.1 62.5 64.0 65.1 68.3 70.7 74.0 76.1 77.7 78.7 79.7 79.2 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 14 13 14 16 16 16 13 11 10 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):284/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 10. 11. 10. 8. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 19. 25. 30. 34. 38. 37. 39. 35. 32.