* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * BERTHA AL021996 07/10/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 93 93 92 89 77 72 64 58 55 47 43 38 V (KT) LAND 95 93 93 92 89 77 72 64 44 33 31 31 30 V (KT) LGE mod 95 93 91 89 86 82 75 67 43 32 34 34 30 V (KT) G05R 60 61 52 59 56 49 49 49 48 47 45 38 38 SHEAR (KT) 8 4 6 13 26 29 22 25 27 22 38 38 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 0 3 3 2 2 3 0 2 6 7 5 3 SHEAR DIR 355 353 200 177 147 161 122 96 68 58 65 55 40 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.5 27.5 20.7 8.5 6.4 9.6 13.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 135 131 129 130 129 83 66 67 70 73 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 128 121 116 115 113 109 76 65 66 69 70 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -53.4 -53.9 -54.7 -54.2 -54.7 -54.4 -55.3 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 16 15 14 14 14 10 10 6 8 4 6 1 0 700-500 MB RH 48 47 51 53 56 64 66 62 55 59 64 57 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 33 32 30 30 30 26 27 27 28 31 29 30 31 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -18 9 32 25 12 27 -6 -11 -1 33 73 98 200 MB DIV -23 -33 -1 37 56 21 41 52 73 114 88 46 21 LAND (KM) 447 499 537 457 441 365 285 94 -92 -18 40 60 3 LAT (DEG N) 23.9 25.1 25.9 26.7 27.7 29.7 31.0 33.1 36.2 39.4 43.5 47.0 49.4 LONG(DEG W) 72.1 73.6 74.7 75.5 75.7 77.1 77.6 78.0 76.8 74.7 69.2 62.6 54.8 STM SPEED (KT) 18 15 12 10 11 10 7 14 18 23 29 29 31 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):308/ 19 CX,CY: -14/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -15. -25. -36. -44. -50. -53. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -3. -9. -9. -7. -6. -4. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -5. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -5. -6. -5. -3. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -6. -18. -23. -31. -37. -40. -48. -52. -57.