* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL021996 07/13/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 60 51 46 42 35 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 49 38 33 31 30 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 48 40 39 35 34 32 33 39 39 38 34 24 21 SHEAR (KT) 21 17 15 19 23 33 45 31 26 21 8 44 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 0 1 5 6 1 4 11 10 0 -4 1 6 SHEAR DIR 91 79 64 54 60 57 72 55 13 349 178 174 173 SST (C) N/A N/A 13.9 13.7 13.5 13.1 10.0 7.6 13.4 13.2 15.1 17.3 20.2 POT. INT. (KT) N/A N/A 71 71 71 72 71 72 69 66 69 74 83 ADJ. POT. INT. N/A N/A 68 68 69 70 70 71 66 62 65 68 76 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -56.2 -55.0 -54.2 -53.5 -54.5 -54.0 -54.6 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 6 5 9 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 700-500 MB RH 62 62 64 63 65 58 44 50 46 37 34 35 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 31 27 26 24 24 27 27 25 22 22 21 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 9 12 49 64 69 53 13 88 73 31 -3 49 62 200 MB DIV 108 115 115 136 109 39 -23 18 -28 -20 -36 -26 -26 LAND (KM) -69 -140 -97 -82 -88 -73 13 315 896 1139 1221 1242 1537 LAT (DEG N) 35.0 36.2 38.0 39.8 41.5 45.1 47.4 48.6 50.8 50.7 49.2 46.4 43.6 LONG(DEG W) 77.8 77.5 76.6 75.2 73.3 68.2 59.0 48.7 41.0 37.5 36.2 36.5 33.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 16 20 22 24 28 33 39 17 8 11 15 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 16/ 15 CX,CY: 4/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -8. -13. -17. -24. -29. -33. -36. -39. -40. -40. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 1. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -14. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -14. -19. -23. -30. -38. -49. -57. -60. -60. -68. -74.