* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL021996 07/13/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 57 52 47 43 37 26 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 48 37 32 31 30 25 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 53 41 41 40 39 31 34 36 37 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 23 16 17 23 27 32 44 34 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 0 3 4 6 3 4 10 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 95 76 65 56 67 59 74 63 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) N/A 6.0 19.0 18.0 17.1 15.3 10.3 7.6 10.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) N/A 66 80 78 77 74 71 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. N/A 65 75 74 73 71 70 71 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.4 -54.9 -54.9 -55.3 -56.7 -55.5 -54.6 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 6 5 8 7 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 62 67 65 67 55 43 47 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 33 28 28 26 26 28 26 23 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -6 24 35 34 36 -7 72 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 116 113 129 146 117 39 -31 4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -75 -89 -53 -51 -119 -102 -11 337 1139 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.3 36.8 38.8 40.7 42.7 46.0 47.8 48.7 53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.6 77.0 76.0 74.6 72.2 67.2 58.2 48.3 38.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 19 22 24 26 27 32 39 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 16/ 15 CX,CY: 4/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -4. -8. -12. -15. -22. -28. -32. -35. -37. -38. -38. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -16. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -18. -21. -24. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -13. -18. -22. -28. -39. -50. -61. -67. -70. -73. -76.