* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL021996 07/14/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 36 34 33 30 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 41 34 37 35 34 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 36 37 38 37 37 48 53 40 36 29 23 20 23 SHEAR (KT) 25 28 33 40 45 35 28 8 16 32 36 23 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 5 10 15 17 3 -4 0 -1 5 7 0 SHEAR DIR 47 60 57 65 63 23 331 306 159 145 123 94 59 SST (C) N/A 5.2 6.3 12.7 7.7 9.9 10.6 11.2 12.2 12.2 12.0 11.4 10.6 POT. INT. (KT) N/A 69 71 75 72 66 63 63 65 63 63 66 67 ADJ. POT. INT. N/A 69 70 73 71 64 61 61 62 61 61 63 65 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.7 -56.1 -55.0 -53.3 -51.5 -50.1 -49.3 -49.0 -50.3 -49.3 -48.2 -48.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 61 63 58 54 56 49 42 41 37 38 43 55 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 27 28 29 28 35 40 35 29 25 20 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 41 44 51 47 91 171 164 154 148 159 163 175 150 200 MB DIV 94 66 45 10 -19 21 1 -8 -38 -8 0 13 21 LAND (KM) -57 19 -23 38 23 628 786 870 998 1136 1237 1376 1455 LAT (DEG N) 41.9 43.9 45.9 47.6 49.5 52.9 52.9 52.4 51.6 51.4 51.7 52.8 55.6 LONG(DEG W) 71.7 68.7 64.7 59.7 53.3 46.5 43.7 42.1 39.7 37.7 36.2 34.6 32.5 STM SPEED (KT) 30 32 36 42 39 15 8 7 8 5 5 12 17 HEAT CONTENT 0 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 43/ 22 CX,CY: 15/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 421 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -9. -13. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 11. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 0. -3. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -15. -20. -24. -28. -31. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 4. 7. 4. 0. -3. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. -20. -28. -36. -46. -55. -62.