* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CESAR AL031996 07/25/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 40 45 50 62 72 76 78 83 87 89 90 V (KT) LAND 30 34 40 45 50 62 72 43 35 31 29 28 28 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 50 60 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 26 32 35 33 33 32 28 10 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 5 11 19 18 8 11 5 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -4 -1 -4 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 141 152 171 180 163 175 193 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.4 27.7 28.0 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 130 129 133 136 140 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 140 139 136 142 142 145 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.0 -55.1 -54.6 -54.3 -54.7 -53.8 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 10 14 14 12 13 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 69 67 63 66 70 72 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 12 11 13 13 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 72 79 90 109 106 86 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 92 86 48 55 86 71 73 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 134 173 79 64 201 394 92 -98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.1 12.7 13.0 13.0 13.1 13.6 13.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.7 67.1 69.6 72.0 74.3 78.8 82.6 86.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 24 24 23 23 20 19 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):272/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 15. 20. 32. 42. 46. 48. 53. 57. 59. 60.