* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DOUGLAS EP071996 07/31/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 83 86 88 92 93 90 87 81 75 67 57 V (KT) LAND 80 81 83 86 88 92 93 90 87 81 75 67 57 V (KT) LGE mod 80 81 82 83 84 85 84 79 74 69 62 55 48 V (KT) G03R 43 37 41 38 40 52 47 44 45 42 42 39 38 SHEAR (KT) 13 2 2 6 10 14 14 10 9 10 14 16 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 4 2 -1 2 2 1 1 1 2 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 267 244 173 173 189 226 207 253 205 248 260 260 275 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.3 27.7 27.3 26.6 25.2 24.2 24.2 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 160 156 152 147 141 136 129 116 104 104 103 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -52.0 -52.7 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 14 12 11 12 13 11 11 10 10 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 76 75 77 76 75 71 70 71 69 66 62 62 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 20 20 21 24 26 27 28 28 28 27 25 850 MB ENV VOR 47 34 25 27 37 57 63 49 48 75 103 109 94 200 MB DIV 131 93 85 91 110 61 87 16 46 15 20 -6 8 LAND (KM) 285 310 332 369 375 406 437 480 569 655 803 949 1088 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.6 16.1 16.4 16.9 18.2 19.0 19.2 19.7 20.2 20.5 20.5 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 103.4 104.3 105.5 106.6 107.4 108.8 110.6 112.4 114.3 116.3 118.6 120.3 122.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 10 9 9 10 8 9 11 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):299/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -4. -9. -14. -20. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 9. 10. 12. 12. 13. 11. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 13. 10. 8. 1. -5. -13. -23.