* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DOUGLAS EP071996 07/31/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 83 86 90 96 97 99 97 91 82 72 64 V (KT) LAND 80 81 83 86 90 96 97 99 97 91 82 72 64 V (KT) LGE mod 80 81 83 83 84 85 85 83 80 73 64 56 50 V (KT) G04R 60 41 44 49 49 54 49 47 53 50 50 44 42 SHEAR (KT) 9 9 9 11 11 7 4 7 6 11 15 12 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 5 3 0 2 9 2 0 0 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 252 148 188 196 185 207 271 247 213 251 260 257 264 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.4 27.9 27.4 26.1 24.2 23.6 23.7 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 160 157 155 149 143 137 126 105 99 100 98 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.8 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -52.3 -52.8 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -52.3 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 14 12 11 12 13 12 12 11 10 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 74 75 76 75 73 72 71 73 66 59 55 53 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 22 22 24 26 28 28 31 32 33 31 30 28 850 MB ENV VOR 19 17 14 26 33 56 56 60 67 107 122 121 109 200 MB DIV 127 113 91 126 135 95 87 33 37 -19 -16 10 -22 LAND (KM) 326 322 310 352 345 408 495 514 532 670 841 963 1158 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.3 16.0 16.2 16.7 17.9 18.5 18.9 20.4 20.8 21.3 21.8 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 103.2 103.9 105.0 105.9 106.7 108.6 110.8 112.5 114.4 117.2 119.6 121.9 124.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 11 9 10 11 9 9 13 12 11 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):299/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -0. -4. -9. -15. -21. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 9. 14. 15. 16. 15. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 16. 17. 19. 17. 11. 2. -8. -16.