* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DOUGLAS EP071996 07/31/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 82 84 87 92 96 94 97 96 93 88 80 71 V (KT) LAND 80 82 84 87 92 96 94 97 96 93 88 80 71 V (KT) LGE mod 80 81 83 83 84 83 82 80 77 73 68 61 55 V (KT) G09R 34 39 41 42 42 49 43 49 51 53 52 51 49 SHEAR (KT) 11 3 1 4 9 7 11 10 6 13 17 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 9 6 0 4 0 -2 0 -3 -5 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 259 161 209 231 208 191 221 229 205 264 236 272 251 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.0 25.8 24.8 24.4 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 158 154 152 147 142 139 133 121 111 107 104 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.2 -52.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.6 -52.5 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 14 12 11 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 77 77 75 75 75 75 71 72 69 67 63 62 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 22 21 22 25 28 27 31 33 35 35 34 33 850 MB ENV VOR 40 37 38 49 53 64 53 58 65 79 101 116 131 200 MB DIV 138 111 123 125 134 55 49 8 21 23 4 4 12 LAND (KM) 344 335 376 421 436 524 555 639 729 821 917 1114 1245 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.4 16.0 16.2 16.7 17.7 18.3 18.3 18.7 19.2 19.8 19.9 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 103.6 104.4 106.0 107.2 108.0 109.8 112.1 113.7 115.4 117.5 119.4 121.8 123.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 13 14 10 10 11 9 8 8 10 11 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):299/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -4. -8. -13. -18. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 8. 15. 18. 20. 21. 19. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 14. 17. 16. 13. 8. -0. -9.