* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DOUGLAS EP071996 08/01/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 112 110 108 105 99 88 74 62 53 45 39 31 V (KT) LAND 110 112 110 108 105 99 88 74 62 53 45 39 31 V (KT) LGE mod 110 111 108 102 97 86 75 65 57 51 47 43 39 V (KT) G01R 51 44 45 44 45 47 44 40 39 36 38 34 29 SHEAR (KT) 2 9 7 7 6 5 10 3 8 5 8 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -3 -1 -2 -1 2 1 1 1 0 3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 46 143 142 123 146 291 268 302 289 287 259 263 246 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.0 26.6 26.3 25.5 24.4 24.1 23.8 24.2 24.2 24.4 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 135 131 128 120 107 105 102 105 106 108 106 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -53.1 -52.9 -53.7 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 13 10 9 10 9 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 76 74 74 71 68 68 61 57 52 52 46 43 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 27 26 27 27 29 30 28 26 24 22 21 18 850 MB ENV VOR 39 39 39 41 39 71 70 86 101 108 94 96 82 200 MB DIV 108 86 34 33 77 30 18 -9 4 13 5 -14 -5 LAND (KM) 416 464 448 430 477 592 773 952 1180 1419 1647 1899 2069 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.1 18.9 19.5 19.9 20.7 21.1 21.5 21.6 20.9 20.9 20.6 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 108.4 109.4 110.6 112.0 113.3 116.0 118.7 121.4 124.5 126.8 129.4 132.0 134.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 14 14 13 14 11 15 13 10 12 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):298/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -18. -30. -40. -49. -57. -62. -67. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. -0. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 4. 2. -1. -4. -5. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -2. -5. -11. -21. -36. -48. -57. -65. -71. -79.