* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DOUGLAS EP071996 08/01/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 111 109 107 103 97 86 73 60 50 42 32 22 V (KT) LAND 110 111 109 107 103 97 86 73 60 50 42 32 22 V (KT) LGE mod 110 111 108 103 98 88 78 68 60 52 46 41 37 V (KT) G08R 57 43 41 40 43 40 40 38 38 36 37 31 31 SHEAR (KT) 6 9 8 9 6 5 8 8 9 6 6 8 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -4 -3 1 1 1 0 2 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 100 159 164 170 209 230 282 282 306 354 297 349 80 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.2 26.9 26.5 25.9 24.4 24.1 23.7 23.7 23.7 23.6 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 137 134 130 124 109 105 100 100 100 99 97 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.8 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 10 11 11 9 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 73 71 73 71 68 67 60 56 51 49 46 43 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 26 25 26 26 28 27 27 25 23 21 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR 23 31 34 37 45 60 81 98 102 92 90 75 64 200 MB DIV 86 79 53 73 100 18 2 -22 -5 6 -10 -7 -4 LAND (KM) 355 416 469 430 416 522 685 895 1088 1279 1458 1680 1805 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.7 20.6 21.4 21.7 22.0 21.9 22.2 22.2 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.7 109.7 110.8 112.1 114.6 117.9 120.8 123.7 125.9 128.1 130.5 132.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 15 15 14 12 10 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):298/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -9. -17. -28. -39. -48. -56. -63. -68. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 1. 1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -3. -7. -13. -24. -37. -50. -60. -68. -78. -88.