* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DOUGLAS EP071996 08/06/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 30 29 27 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 30 29 27 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 29 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 30 29 25 23 24 24 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 8 8 8 6 6 11 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 3 3 0 -4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 13 28 71 58 39 53 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.5 23.6 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.7 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 99 100 99 98 98 101 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 46 47 46 46 45 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 13 11 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 46 59 49 47 47 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -20 -17 5 10 13 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1829 1943 2043 1938 1828 1524 1236 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.7 21.4 21.4 21.6 21.9 22.7 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 131.9 133.3 134.8 136.3 137.4 140.5 143.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 12 12 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):276/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -10. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -8. -11. -15. -17. -20. -22. -24.