* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EDOUARD AL051996 08/24/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 68 69 70 75 80 85 91 93 96 97 98 V (KT) LAND 65 67 68 69 70 75 80 85 91 93 96 97 98 V (KT) LGE mod 65 67 68 69 69 69 71 76 83 89 93 94 94 V (KT) G00R 27 31 31 31 34 42 38 52 52 57 60 66 56 SHEAR (KT) 16 14 16 20 16 13 5 11 15 20 21 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 -1 0 0 -4 -3 3 0 -1 3 5 0 SHEAR DIR 275 285 251 243 247 199 207 124 55 94 35 60 36 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.6 28.1 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 127 126 125 126 128 127 129 131 133 140 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 124 124 120 118 122 123 121 122 125 126 132 132 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.7 -54.8 -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -54.1 -54.4 -53.9 -54.3 -53.8 -54.2 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 14 700-500 MB RH 65 66 64 63 63 58 56 54 57 58 55 49 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 23 23 24 25 27 28 28 31 30 32 33 34 850 MB ENV VOR 128 123 118 111 109 93 88 68 70 53 37 7 -21 200 MB DIV 85 68 51 59 77 44 40 18 35 26 40 7 23 LAND (KM) 1578 1490 1420 1378 1350 1337 1340 1224 1163 928 813 790 951 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.1 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.9 17.0 17.9 19.1 20.3 22.5 24.5 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 41.1 42.2 43.6 44.6 45.3 47.2 49.7 52.2 54.3 57.1 59.2 61.8 64.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 9 8 13 13 12 12 15 15 17 14 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. -0. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 10. 15. 20. 26. 28. 31. 32. 33.