* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FRAN AL061996 08/24/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 40 45 50 61 70 79 86 92 95 98 97 V (KT) LAND 30 34 40 45 50 61 70 79 86 92 95 98 97 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 38 41 45 50 55 61 66 69 71 75 V (KT) G00R 18 17 19 25 20 22 24 33 36 45 42 49 49 SHEAR (KT) 7 1 6 11 12 13 13 14 22 20 10 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 12 9 2 1 -1 -4 -3 -2 -3 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 267 0 197 246 255 255 246 268 256 237 226 219 191 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 133 131 131 132 134 134 135 133 133 130 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 131 132 129 127 127 132 138 134 130 133 130 128 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.5 -54.8 -54.7 -55.1 -55.9 -55.4 -55.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.0 -53.8 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 73 70 71 72 74 73 72 67 62 64 61 56 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 11 12 13 16 18 20 24 30 31 34 33 850 MB ENV VOR 101 82 74 57 52 43 53 72 84 90 98 70 66 200 MB DIV 102 111 114 120 110 95 104 75 65 104 87 49 30 LAND (KM) 785 927 1069 1220 1316 1527 1691 1786 1574 1442 1377 1269 1202 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.5 13.3 13.2 13.2 12.8 12.6 12.7 11.8 11.7 13.0 14.2 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 24.7 26.0 27.2 28.7 29.6 31.5 33.0 36.1 39.2 40.6 42.6 45.7 48.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 12 9 8 10 17 12 9 14 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -18. -19. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 14. 15. 17. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 15. 20. 31. 40. 49. 56. 62. 65. 68. 67.