* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EDOUARD AL051996 08/24/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 69 70 71 76 82 88 94 99 103 104 106 V (KT) LAND 65 67 69 70 71 76 82 88 94 99 103 104 106 V (KT) LGE mod 65 67 69 70 70 70 72 78 84 91 96 98 97 V (KT) G02R 29 29 30 30 29 35 37 47 50 54 56 56 63 SHEAR (KT) 14 14 17 20 16 12 4 10 9 16 15 18 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 0 0 -2 -4 2 3 0 3 3 -3 SHEAR DIR 283 293 254 251 257 199 226 133 59 82 32 46 20 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 129 127 126 127 127 128 128 132 134 138 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 126 126 122 120 123 122 122 121 126 125 129 132 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.7 -54.8 -54.4 -54.4 -54.7 -54.1 -54.4 -54.0 -54.4 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 11 10 12 12 13 13 14 13 13 700-500 MB RH 65 65 63 62 62 56 56 54 56 58 55 53 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 21 21 22 23 26 26 28 30 31 34 35 37 850 MB ENV VOR 148 142 136 127 127 107 96 80 77 64 51 31 -6 200 MB DIV 76 71 50 49 74 37 41 27 54 57 48 26 13 LAND (KM) 1548 1447 1360 1320 1288 1269 1294 1177 1115 903 744 711 875 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.0 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.5 16.7 17.7 18.7 20.1 21.6 23.5 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 41.5 42.7 44.1 45.2 46.1 47.8 50.1 52.7 54.6 57.2 59.5 61.7 63.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 10 9 12 12 13 11 15 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 11. 17. 23. 29. 34. 38. 40. 41.