* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FRAN AL061996 08/24/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 45 51 61 72 85 91 98 102 103 101 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 45 51 61 72 85 91 98 102 103 101 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 40 44 48 55 63 70 75 80 82 V (KT) G02R 17 17 20 25 22 24 27 34 38 47 41 41 44 SHEAR (KT) 7 1 7 12 13 15 11 10 15 11 6 16 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 12 11 3 1 -3 -3 0 -2 -3 -2 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 263 149 204 250 256 253 264 284 254 223 216 197 197 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.2 27.0 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 133 130 128 131 134 134 133 132 128 124 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 132 132 126 121 124 133 134 128 129 125 120 115 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.6 -54.8 -54.6 -55.1 -55.9 -55.3 -55.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 74 71 71 73 73 73 73 68 66 67 61 56 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 10 12 14 17 19 24 27 31 33 32 31 850 MB ENV VOR 101 80 70 55 57 68 84 88 101 104 105 79 89 200 MB DIV 105 131 139 135 130 124 122 70 63 46 67 86 69 LAND (KM) 795 918 1056 1206 1272 1420 1575 1799 1664 1689 1616 1556 1598 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.3 12.8 13.1 12.6 11.8 12.5 13.9 15.1 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 24.7 25.8 27.2 28.6 29.2 30.5 32.0 35.2 37.1 38.3 40.3 42.6 43.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 14 10 6 6 13 13 7 10 13 11 8 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 16. 20. 24. 26. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 10. 12. 16. 17. 16. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 21. 31. 42. 55. 61. 68. 72. 73. 71.