* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FRAN AL061996 08/24/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 40 45 50 61 72 81 89 94 97 97 96 V (KT) LAND 30 34 40 45 50 61 72 81 89 94 97 97 96 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 38 41 46 52 59 67 73 76 78 79 V (KT) G03R 20 18 23 25 22 22 23 33 31 40 37 38 36 SHEAR (KT) 5 2 6 11 11 12 15 13 18 19 15 20 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 10 6 0 0 -2 -6 -4 -4 -3 -4 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 249 14 228 255 266 265 261 258 251 236 223 223 218 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 133 130 131 134 135 137 137 137 136 132 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 133 125 126 132 134 141 137 136 139 133 133 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.6 -54.9 -54.7 -55.1 -55.6 -55.2 -55.4 -54.7 -54.8 -54.3 -54.3 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 73 71 73 74 74 74 71 66 67 65 64 57 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 12 13 12 15 18 19 23 27 28 30 30 850 MB ENV VOR 88 65 61 58 56 56 68 72 80 92 94 82 77 200 MB DIV 83 110 124 116 115 102 105 54 65 96 90 58 50 LAND (KM) 797 963 1150 1256 1350 1565 1757 1673 1517 1322 1254 1115 1050 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.3 13.0 13.0 13.1 12.5 12.0 11.8 11.0 10.8 12.3 13.2 14.2 LONG(DEG W) 24.7 26.2 28.0 29.0 29.8 31.7 33.5 36.7 39.2 41.2 43.5 46.7 49.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 14 9 8 10 10 17 11 10 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 429 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -18. -20. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 15. 20. 31. 42. 51. 59. 65. 67. 67. 66.