* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FRAN AL061996 08/24/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 40 45 49 58 65 71 77 82 85 87 88 V (KT) LAND 30 34 40 45 49 58 65 71 77 82 85 87 88 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 41 45 49 55 63 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 18 17 20 25 20 21 19 18 21 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 8 2 8 10 12 8 10 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 12 7 3 1 2 -4 -4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 277 8 174 229 253 267 270 276 280 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.8 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 131 130 129 128 129 134 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 131 130 130 129 127 125 126 133 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.9 -55.6 -55.2 -55.5 -55.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 11 11 11 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 68 68 69 71 69 67 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 10 11 11 11 13 12 11 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 112 89 83 69 59 21 4 29 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 108 118 108 81 82 43 60 5 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 783 925 1062 1219 1345 1645 1868 1703 1501 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.6 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.4 13.6 11.9 10.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 24.7 26.0 27.2 28.7 30.0 32.7 34.7 36.0 37.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 14 13 12 11 11 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 16. 20. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 15. 19. 28. 35. 41. 47. 52. 55. 57. 58.