* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EDOUARD AL051996 08/24/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 69 71 72 76 81 88 96 99 104 104 104 V (KT) LAND 65 67 69 71 72 76 81 88 96 99 104 104 104 V (KT) LGE mod 65 67 68 69 70 70 72 77 84 93 98 101 99 V (KT) G08R 35 40 38 35 36 44 50 53 51 61 62 70 60 SHEAR (KT) 14 9 12 18 17 14 3 9 9 14 12 15 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 3 0 -2 -2 -2 -1 1 -3 -3 1 2 4 SHEAR DIR 267 292 240 236 242 204 198 123 57 62 26 45 21 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.6 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 129 128 126 127 128 127 128 131 133 141 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 127 126 124 120 123 123 121 120 125 125 132 127 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.6 -54.7 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -54.3 -53.7 -54.1 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 12 12 700-500 MB RH 67 68 67 66 65 62 59 57 60 61 59 57 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 26 26 26 27 29 30 31 33 33 35 36 38 850 MB ENV VOR 118 118 118 113 115 96 94 86 76 77 66 43 20 200 MB DIV 97 85 71 90 101 48 58 76 83 68 80 34 76 LAND (KM) 1501 1416 1346 1291 1260 1270 1322 1205 1164 958 912 1026 1310 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.8 14.0 14.3 14.6 15.6 17.0 18.2 19.5 21.3 23.5 26.5 29.8 LONG(DEG W) 41.7 43.0 44.2 45.5 46.3 48.1 50.2 52.7 54.7 57.1 58.8 61.0 62.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 9 12 13 12 11 16 15 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 11. 16. 23. 31. 34. 39. 39. 39.