* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EDOUARD AL051996 08/24/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 68 68 69 71 74 79 86 88 92 93 95 V (KT) LAND 65 67 68 68 69 71 74 79 86 88 92 93 95 V (KT) LGE mod 65 67 68 68 68 67 67 72 79 87 93 97 96 V (KT) G10R 41 35 35 35 35 36 35 43 47 47 50 56 59 SHEAR (KT) 18 16 18 18 16 14 6 15 10 13 19 20 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 2 4 3 -3 -4 0 -1 0 1 6 7 SHEAR DIR 284 283 250 241 247 208 195 135 59 87 44 69 45 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.6 28.0 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 128 126 125 126 126 127 127 131 133 139 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 124 123 121 119 121 121 121 120 124 126 131 133 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.8 -54.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.7 -54.1 -54.4 -54.1 -54.6 -54.4 -55.1 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 14 14 14 700-500 MB RH 65 63 62 61 60 57 55 54 56 56 52 51 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 24 24 24 25 25 25 25 27 27 29 29 32 850 MB ENV VOR 146 138 135 124 117 96 86 74 79 65 48 8 -23 200 MB DIV 85 77 53 60 62 9 36 34 58 40 21 23 37 LAND (KM) 1577 1472 1422 1412 1385 1372 1378 1301 1220 1002 830 789 989 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 13.8 14.1 14.6 15.0 16.0 17.1 18.3 19.3 20.4 22.2 24.3 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 41.0 42.2 43.2 44.1 45.0 46.7 49.0 51.7 53.7 56.3 58.8 61.6 63.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 9 11 12 14 12 15 15 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -4. -2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 9. 14. 21. 23. 27. 28. 30.