* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GUSTAV AL071996 08/31/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 41 45 46 52 57 59 63 68 72 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 41 45 46 52 57 59 63 68 72 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 36 36 37 39 41 47 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 44 33 30 29 27 29 24 25 22 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 29 25 29 27 24 28 23 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 3 2 4 3 4 2 2 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 103 94 103 105 88 62 58 63 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 123 124 124 123 125 126 128 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 116 117 115 113 117 117 122 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -55.2 -55.2 -54.9 -55.2 -56.0 -55.5 -55.6 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 55 57 57 59 59 58 57 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 13 12 10 11 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 24 24 7 1 7 -5 -4 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 62 76 50 53 62 60 -2 7 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1797 1739 1658 1639 1629 1620 1581 1434 1164 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.3 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.5 19.2 20.0 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 41.6 42.7 43.7 44.7 45.3 46.7 49.1 51.6 54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 8 7 10 11 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):302/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 793 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -8. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 10. 11. 17. 22. 24. 28. 33. 37.