* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ELIDA EP081996 08/31/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 44 54 61 68 74 75 79 83 82 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 44 54 61 68 74 75 79 83 82 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 38 40 46 52 58 62 65 67 68 70 V (KT) G02R 19 22 26 24 23 24 27 31 33 37 43 50 48 SHEAR (KT) 8 7 4 4 6 8 11 12 13 14 14 11 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -5 -6 -6 -3 -4 -2 -3 -3 -7 -7 -3 SHEAR DIR 187 184 200 217 282 320 296 251 261 253 220 238 293 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.5 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 152 151 149 148 148 147 147 147 143 137 126 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -54.4 -53.8 -54.2 -53.1 -53.8 -53.1 -53.2 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 14 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 10 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 68 68 69 66 64 66 65 65 64 64 60 58 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 12 11 13 13 16 19 20 22 25 25 850 MB ENV VOR -7 3 3 0 6 36 66 76 80 86 75 67 66 200 MB DIV 82 75 59 64 56 51 79 69 99 49 28 10 -4 LAND (KM) 477 515 528 590 668 797 865 919 910 935 989 1022 1019 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.0 15.5 15.7 16.0 15.9 15.8 15.8 16.4 17.3 17.8 18.3 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 105.6 106.8 107.9 109.0 110.2 111.7 113.4 114.5 115.3 116.7 118.2 119.3 120.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 8 7 4 6 8 7 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):307/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 30. 32. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 2. 3. 7. 12. 13. 16. 19. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 24. 31. 38. 44. 45. 49. 53. 52.