* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FRAN AL061996 08/31/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 55 55 56 57 59 63 68 74 82 87 95 V (KT) LAND 55 54 55 55 56 57 59 63 68 74 82 87 95 V (KT) LGE mod 55 53 52 52 52 54 55 57 60 66 73 83 91 V (KT) G06R 32 38 38 43 43 42 51 51 54 55 56 65 67 SHEAR (KT) 15 14 19 14 14 20 11 16 15 16 11 15 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 5 4 3 3 5 2 -1 0 -1 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 136 141 154 166 173 168 148 122 108 127 70 74 31 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 131 134 134 133 133 135 137 140 141 145 146 154 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 119 121 118 117 120 123 130 130 133 132 140 135 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -53.0 -52.2 -52.4 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 15 700-500 MB RH 47 47 47 47 48 53 54 55 55 55 56 54 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 24 26 26 25 25 27 27 27 29 32 34 39 850 MB ENV VOR 33 37 41 36 26 18 29 24 39 47 86 80 118 200 MB DIV 19 28 51 43 8 8 25 53 7 63 88 29 63 LAND (KM) 536 503 490 473 457 374 342 377 308 341 300 282 236 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.1 20.6 21.0 21.1 21.1 21.4 22.0 22.4 22.9 23.2 24.0 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 61.0 61.2 61.7 62.2 62.5 63.7 64.8 67.0 69.2 71.8 73.8 76.2 77.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 6 4 4 6 7 12 11 12 9 10 6 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):317/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. -2. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 19. 27. 32. 40.