* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GUSTAV AL071996 08/31/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 42 43 47 48 52 55 56 60 63 66 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 42 43 47 48 52 55 56 60 63 66 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 36 37 39 41 43 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 35 29 29 26 22 23 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 23 24 27 23 24 30 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -1 -2 2 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 106 107 105 105 84 68 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 123 123 123 125 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 119 116 114 113 117 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -55.1 -55.5 -55.3 -55.4 -56.0 -55.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 58 58 57 58 58 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 12 12 11 9 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 23 23 14 6 -4 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 67 68 63 57 44 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1747 1708 1696 1701 1716 1706 1635 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.1 17.7 18.2 18.8 19.6 20.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 41.7 42.8 43.8 44.6 45.3 47.2 49.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):302/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 784 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 8. 12. 13. 17. 20. 21. 25. 28. 31.