* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ELIDA EP081996 08/31/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 46 54 62 65 69 71 74 77 77 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 46 54 62 65 69 71 74 77 77 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 40 43 46 49 51 52 52 52 53 V (KT) G07R 24 24 26 30 21 24 23 31 35 40 43 44 47 SHEAR (KT) 5 4 5 7 9 12 11 12 11 10 7 6 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 0 -3 -9 -6 -6 -4 0 4 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 168 210 272 263 266 274 271 243 264 246 231 240 169 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.5 27.1 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 153 152 149 147 148 148 147 144 138 133 129 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -53.7 -53.5 -54.2 -53.8 -54.2 -53.2 -53.6 -53.1 -53.5 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 12 10 11 700-500 MB RH 69 70 70 69 68 69 68 67 65 66 64 63 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 14 17 17 20 23 24 26 28 850 MB ENV VOR 2 24 28 32 23 41 40 38 41 40 34 33 24 200 MB DIV 99 110 109 126 115 110 93 105 102 79 29 5 7 LAND (KM) 548 606 638 724 806 879 947 932 814 716 622 615 596 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.5 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.5 15.0 16.1 17.2 18.5 19.4 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 105.5 107.0 108.2 109.4 110.5 111.4 112.3 113.0 112.9 113.2 113.7 114.6 115.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 12 11 7 4 4 4 6 6 7 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):307/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 30. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 8. 9. 13. 17. 20. 21. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 24. 32. 35. 39. 41. 44. 47. 47.