* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ELIDA EP081996 08/31/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 45 50 55 60 63 65 65 68 68 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 45 50 55 60 63 65 65 68 68 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 39 42 44 46 49 51 53 55 56 V (KT) G08R 28 24 24 23 20 20 23 23 29 31 27 30 33 SHEAR (KT) 1 2 4 6 10 10 11 11 13 12 9 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -1 -3 -3 -6 -5 -3 -1 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 184 200 250 243 264 275 276 273 261 245 249 266 288 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.5 26.9 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 151 150 150 149 147 145 143 137 131 127 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.2 -54.5 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.7 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 11 12 700-500 MB RH 66 67 66 65 63 64 64 66 65 67 62 60 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 13 14 13 13 13 14 16 17 16 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 0 10 13 9 6 22 24 25 27 27 46 39 34 200 MB DIV 95 104 92 85 61 66 66 53 56 47 58 8 9 LAND (KM) 572 613 636 666 676 638 660 596 554 479 379 298 294 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.4 13.7 13.8 14.1 14.7 15.1 16.2 17.1 18.3 19.5 20.5 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 105.0 106.0 106.9 107.5 108.2 108.5 109.3 109.5 109.7 109.7 110.3 111.3 112.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 5 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):307/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 29. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -14. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 20. 25. 30. 33. 35. 35. 38. 38.