* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ELIDA EP081996 08/31/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 45 55 63 72 80 85 87 89 85 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 45 55 63 72 80 85 87 89 85 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 40 45 50 54 58 62 64 65 66 V (KT) G09R 23 26 30 29 29 31 31 38 49 57 54 56 49 SHEAR (KT) 12 9 6 8 8 5 8 8 9 8 6 5 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -5 -3 -2 -2 -2 -5 -6 3 2 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 176 171 164 166 204 252 261 235 258 220 175 304 236 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.0 27.4 26.9 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 150 146 146 146 146 145 142 136 130 124 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.1 -52.8 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 15 13 12 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 11 9 10 700-500 MB RH 67 68 70 67 65 65 63 61 59 59 56 58 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 11 12 15 18 21 25 29 29 30 29 850 MB ENV VOR -12 4 11 16 15 33 46 45 48 46 48 52 44 200 MB DIV 84 80 46 49 44 38 53 25 40 36 19 26 20 LAND (KM) 471 483 529 632 684 745 828 920 992 1017 1051 1123 1101 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.6 16.2 16.7 16.9 16.9 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.7 18.3 18.6 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 106.0 107.3 108.7 110.3 111.5 113.2 114.7 116.3 117.5 118.5 119.7 120.9 121.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 14 10 9 7 7 5 5 6 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):307/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 29. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 0. 4. 8. 13. 19. 23. 24. 24. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 25. 33. 42. 50. 55. 57. 59. 55.