* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GUSTAV AL071996 08/31/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 39 40 43 45 49 49 47 47 47 50 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 39 40 43 45 49 49 47 47 47 50 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 36 36 39 43 49 53 55 DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 35 33 30 25 26 26 24 25 21 17 15 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 31 35 35 29 29 25 12 15 12 31 35 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -4 -1 -1 -1 -4 -1 3 -2 -6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 99 97 96 85 75 55 50 210 210 197 200 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.6 27.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 121 121 121 119 121 124 127 128 133 135 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 114 113 113 112 110 112 115 119 120 123 121 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -55.1 -55.4 -55.2 -55.3 -55.7 -55.7 -55.8 -55.4 -55.2 -54.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 13 13 13 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 54 57 55 55 53 51 49 47 46 49 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 13 11 11 10 9 8 6 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -6 -8 -17 -18 -19 -28 -29 -58 -72 -81 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 55 57 44 19 0 -24 -37 -31 -22 -38 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1885 1874 1841 1830 1847 1892 1841 1667 1363 1104 1012 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.0 18.4 18.9 19.5 20.8 21.7 23.1 23.5 24.3 25.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.7 41.6 42.6 43.5 44.2 45.8 48.0 50.5 53.7 57.2 59.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 11 12 15 15 15 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):302/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 744 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 14. 14. 12. 12. 12. 15.