* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ELIDA EP081996 08/31/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 44 53 60 70 75 81 82 82 81 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 44 53 60 70 75 81 82 82 81 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 39 43 47 51 56 61 65 66 65 V (KT) G10R 35 30 28 29 25 30 29 37 44 49 45 46 45 SHEAR (KT) 12 9 9 11 11 10 7 5 5 5 2 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -6 -4 -1 -2 -3 -2 -6 0 3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 183 188 217 223 242 255 251 225 282 240 158 107 304 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.7 26.7 25.9 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 151 149 147 145 143 142 140 139 130 122 114 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -53.4 -53.9 -53.4 -53.8 -53.0 -53.4 -52.3 -52.8 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 15 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 8 8 700-500 MB RH 69 70 70 68 67 70 67 66 63 61 54 52 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 11 12 13 13 16 17 20 22 26 26 25 27 850 MB ENV VOR -8 11 22 22 24 49 58 66 62 55 40 46 44 200 MB DIV 64 53 46 53 53 43 50 47 49 -16 23 -26 6 LAND (KM) 433 408 444 540 588 671 639 672 708 775 753 832 890 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 16.0 16.5 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.4 17.7 18.2 18.4 19.6 20.2 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 105.5 106.6 107.9 109.0 109.8 110.9 111.8 113.3 114.6 115.7 117.0 118.7 119.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 12 9 7 5 7 6 7 5 9 8 4 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):307/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 4. 6. 12. 15. 19. 19. 18. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 23. 30. 40. 45. 51. 52. 52. 51.