* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRAN AL061996 09/08/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 34 32 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 29 30 28 32 31 31 V (KT) G09R 20 20 19 19 12 9 8 17 15 33 31 35 35 SHEAR (KT) 21 18 11 18 25 33 33 27 32 37 37 35 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 0 -1 0 3 7 13 14 9 14 22 25 SHEAR DIR 33 76 87 71 71 57 64 74 75 68 63 43 28 SST (C) 22.1 20.4 19.9 19.5 19.1 18.2 17.4 16.5 15.7 14.3 12.5 13.2 9.5 POT. INT. (KT) 87 81 80 78 77 75 75 76 70 70 69 72 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 75 72 72 71 70 68 69 71 66 67 66 69 67 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.8 -54.5 -55.0 -54.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -52.2 -52.7 -52.5 -51.8 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 1 1 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 67 69 72 72 67 62 61 59 55 56 55 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 19 20 17 18 16 13 10 7 13 14 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR 9 32 33 26 31 -1 8 45 54 81 117 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 37 54 57 34 14 12 18 12 14 14 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -641 -624 -628 -674 -634 -454 -137 -68 -10 -46 114 579 970 LAT (DEG N) 42.9 43.6 44.7 45.8 46.7 48.7 49.5 50.9 51.1 48.9 48.9 51.2 55.7 LONG(DEG W) 81.1 80.3 79.2 78.2 77.0 74.2 69.8 63.2 59.0 57.7 51.5 45.8 41.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 13 13 13 12 16 25 13 18 18 26 23 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 11/ 8 CX,CY: 2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -8. -6. -4. -4. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 14. 11. 7. 3. 1. -2. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -19. -23. -27. -31. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -7. -6. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 4. 2. -3. -12. -22. -25. -31. -38. -44.