* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRAN AL061996 09/09/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 41 42 40 36 32 28 21 16 V (KT) LAND 25 28 29 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 14 9 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 19 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 90 95 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.1 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 46 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 12 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -507 -450 -415 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 45.7 45.9 46.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.8 74.8 73.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 68/ 12 CX,CY: 11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 16. 17. 18. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 16. 12. 8. 5. 4. 3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 16. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -15. -19. -23. -26. -30. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 17. 15. 11. 7. 3. -4. -9.