* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HORTENSE AL081996 09/09/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 57 61 67 74 78 79 86 90 96 98 103 V (KT) LAND 50 53 57 61 67 74 53 54 61 65 71 73 78 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 54 57 61 69 51 48 53 62 72 80 84 V (KT) G00R 24 30 33 32 31 42 35 31 24 29 28 32 34 SHEAR (KT) 11 12 14 8 5 12 10 13 10 13 16 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 0 0 -2 3 0 1 2 -1 1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 56 102 142 168 101 139 91 98 52 108 60 87 60 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 10.8 19.7 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 154 152 152 152 65 78 148 150 148 149 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 149 146 142 143 144 64 73 130 136 129 135 122 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.6 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -53.8 -54.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -54.0 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 15 14 13 14 14 14 15 14 14 14 14 13 13 700-500 MB RH 61 60 60 60 60 60 57 56 58 59 61 60 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 17 17 18 18 16 17 16 15 15 17 17 20 850 MB ENV VOR 32 24 28 39 40 32 41 25 33 17 37 26 54 200 MB DIV 52 46 62 71 79 29 53 35 71 44 85 49 87 LAND (KM) 279 239 198 144 110 49 -51 55 73 150 275 399 634 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 15.9 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.7 19.3 20.4 20.8 21.9 23.3 24.5 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 64.2 65.3 66.2 66.8 67.2 68.8 70.6 72.8 74.0 74.3 74.6 74.7 73.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 6 7 10 12 10 3 9 5 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 7. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 17. 24. 28. 29. 36. 40. 46. 48. 53.