* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRAN AL061996 09/09/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 37 41 40 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 28 29 29 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 14 8 7 8 6 9 12 16 24 27 30 24 19 SHEAR (KT) 21 28 27 35 40 43 49 53 50 45 43 38 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 3 0 0 4 3 0 -2 -5 -5 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 80 80 72 62 70 56 51 51 53 63 76 84 90 SST (C) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 12.3 14.3 11.7 14.5 17.3 POT. INT. (KT) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 67 72 69 73 78 ADJ. POT. INT. N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 64 69 67 70 73 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.7 -54.0 -53.7 -53.5 -52.0 -51.4 -50.4 -50.9 -52.1 -53.1 -53.6 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 700-500 MB RH 73 71 69 65 64 59 58 53 47 48 44 33 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 12 11 9 8 12 15 19 20 19 17 14 10 850 MB ENV VOR 56 30 37 42 51 50 45 67 86 115 131 122 115 200 MB DIV 41 15 24 30 12 37 17 30 18 31 1 -14 -2 LAND (KM) -568 -557 -513 -437 -374 -372 -87 -21 26 70 123 671 1245 LAT (DEG N) 46.1 46.7 47.1 47.3 47.2 47.9 49.2 49.8 49.5 49.3 49.7 49.6 48.9 LONG(DEG W) 76.5 75.7 74.5 73.5 72.5 72.8 69.2 67.2 64.2 59.2 51.8 43.8 36.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 1 9 10 9 12 24 23 25 27 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 68/ 12 CX,CY: 11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 726 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 4. 8. -6. -3. -1. 0. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 17. 8. 0. -6. -10. -13. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -15. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 9. 10. 11. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -20. -24. -28. -32. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 16. 15. 9. -18. -26. -34. -44. -54.