* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRAN AL061996 09/09/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 38 41 42 39 35 30 25 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 28 29 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 15 9 7 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 20 26 25 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 86 94 87 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.1 -54.5 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 70 70 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 45 51 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 14 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -505 -443 -388 -346 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 45.4 45.9 46.2 46.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 76.1 74.7 73.5 72.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 68/ 12 CX,CY: 11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 16. 17. 18. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 3. 6. 11. 14. 17. 16. 11. 7. 3. 2. -0. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -14. -19. -22. -26. -30. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 16. 17. 14. 10. 5. 0. -7. -13.