* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FAUSTO EP091996 09/10/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 32 36 47 58 70 77 80 81 81 79 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 32 36 47 58 70 77 80 81 81 79 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 23 23 23 25 27 30 33 37 40 42 V (KT) G00R 23 28 31 33 37 38 48 54 58 55 48 48 47 SHEAR (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 8 8 1 8 10 13 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 0 0 -2 -1 -5 0 -6 -4 0 -1 5 SHEAR DIR 242 223 227 243 237 229 213 218 214 14 313 354 336 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.4 27.2 27.0 27.1 27.0 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 155 154 151 146 138 134 132 131 131 126 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -52.7 -53.3 -52.1 -52.4 -51.5 -52.0 -51.5 -52.1 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 14 12 11 12 14 12 13 12 12 12 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 74 74 72 70 70 71 69 66 64 58 57 56 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 16 18 19 22 25 28 31 32 32 33 33 850 MB ENV VOR 28 28 25 24 19 28 44 42 40 48 57 58 56 200 MB DIV 81 75 77 110 128 80 110 47 67 26 46 8 66 LAND (KM) 357 345 355 408 417 421 518 521 557 584 615 584 447 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.6 15.1 15.2 15.5 16.7 17.8 18.6 18.8 19.5 19.4 19.5 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 102.0 102.6 104.2 105.4 106.0 107.8 109.8 112.0 113.1 114.3 114.6 114.3 113.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 12 14 9 8 11 11 9 5 6 2 3 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):273/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 22. 25. 26. 27. 27. 25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 11. 22. 33. 45. 52. 55. 56. 56. 54.