* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FAUSTO EP091996 09/10/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 34 44 55 66 71 73 76 75 71 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 34 44 55 66 71 73 76 75 71 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 22 23 24 26 28 30 33 35 37 V (KT) G01R 40 31 34 33 39 39 48 49 49 47 52 48 47 SHEAR (KT) 12 10 13 14 7 4 5 1 13 2 12 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 1 0 0 3 0 -2 5 -4 -2 -4 1 3 SHEAR DIR 225 225 232 235 178 268 136 154 311 349 16 344 315 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.4 27.5 26.9 27.1 27.1 26.7 26.7 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 156 155 156 149 140 133 132 132 126 128 125 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -53.1 -52.5 -53.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.5 -52.1 -51.3 -52.1 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 14 11 11 11 14 11 14 12 13 12 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 73 70 70 70 71 70 65 62 60 60 54 51 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 17 18 19 22 24 27 29 30 32 32 32 850 MB ENV VOR 28 23 17 14 10 40 48 58 49 49 52 56 51 200 MB DIV 84 81 89 140 121 84 106 37 61 26 53 55 38 LAND (KM) 340 356 384 415 319 360 444 471 570 598 583 564 427 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.6 14.9 14.9 16.1 17.7 18.9 19.3 19.1 19.2 20.0 19.9 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 101.6 102.7 104.4 105.0 105.3 107.9 110.1 112.4 113.7 114.2 114.7 114.4 113.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 11 7 14 12 13 9 3 3 2 3 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):273/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 20. 21. 24. 23. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 9. 19. 30. 41. 46. 48. 51. 50. 46.