* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FAUSTO EP091996 09/10/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 30 35 48 61 74 79 84 86 86 82 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 30 35 48 61 74 79 84 86 86 82 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 23 23 24 27 31 36 40 43 47 50 V (KT) G03R 42 38 35 41 38 51 55 54 55 56 51 50 54 SHEAR (KT) 17 9 9 5 4 3 8 5 5 3 10 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 3 3 0 -2 -4 3 0 -2 -5 -5 2 SHEAR DIR 241 216 233 203 181 154 319 177 9 272 335 355 21 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.6 27.5 27.0 26.4 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 157 156 153 149 145 144 138 137 131 126 119 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.9 -51.8 -52.3 -51.4 -51.9 -51.2 -52.0 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 14 12 11 12 14 12 13 12 12 12 11 10 9 700-500 MB RH 72 73 72 71 69 70 67 67 66 64 60 59 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 20 21 22 26 28 33 33 35 37 38 38 850 MB ENV VOR 29 31 47 43 41 39 33 28 34 31 45 54 71 200 MB DIV 99 84 109 129 107 41 72 34 113 81 129 93 96 LAND (KM) 440 325 315 356 391 543 679 678 655 647 617 528 351 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 15.0 15.6 15.9 16.4 17.0 17.0 17.3 18.2 18.6 19.6 20.5 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 102.5 102.9 104.4 105.6 107.0 109.5 111.7 112.6 113.8 114.2 114.8 114.5 114.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 13 13 12 7 6 5 5 4 6 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):273/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 20. 21. 23. 26. 26. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 6. 10. 23. 36. 49. 54. 59. 61. 61. 57.