* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HORTENSE AL081996 09/10/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 75 78 81 85 89 92 98 101 105 105 105 V (KT) LAND 70 72 75 67 74 78 82 85 91 94 98 98 98 V (KT) LGE mod 70 71 73 66 72 78 82 85 86 86 87 85 80 V (KT) G05R 48 47 47 40 41 38 37 46 46 52 52 61 57 SHEAR (KT) 13 10 10 7 14 10 11 19 12 16 18 15 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 10 8 5 5 8 3 2 0 -2 -9 0 4 SHEAR DIR 75 74 94 41 44 62 54 88 70 80 37 72 357 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.3 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 27.9 26.8 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 151 149 147 140 146 144 142 143 136 124 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 144 141 138 138 128 130 128 124 129 120 110 102 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -52.7 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -52.9 -53.9 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 16 14 13 14 14 14 14 13 14 13 13 12 11 700-500 MB RH 61 58 58 59 56 52 53 53 56 56 52 46 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 22 22 21 20 20 21 24 26 28 31 31 34 850 MB ENV VOR 55 54 56 59 54 45 40 19 32 32 61 42 62 200 MB DIV 64 62 74 89 66 48 22 33 91 57 71 71 88 LAND (KM) 55 8 45 -11 10 111 188 306 439 605 843 742 613 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.6 19.3 20.8 21.5 22.6 23.8 25.3 27.5 30.0 32.9 LONG(DEG W) 66.0 67.1 68.0 68.6 69.1 71.1 71.5 72.0 71.8 71.7 71.2 71.0 70.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 8 10 9 5 6 5 11 11 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 11. 15. 19. 22. 28. 31. 35. 35. 35.