* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRAN AL061996 09/10/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 15 20 26 27 29 31 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 15 25 33 34 37 38 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 6 10 18 18 20 21 32 28 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 39 37 36 34 35 45 51 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 6 5 4 6 0 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 86 87 82 74 65 53 61 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) N/A N/A N/A 10.4 10.9 9.4 7.9 12.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) N/A N/A N/A 64 64 63 66 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. N/A N/A N/A 62 62 61 65 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -52.6 -51.7 -51.0 -49.6 -49.4 -49.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 65 64 63 61 50 42 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 10 11 13 14 15 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 11 38 50 62 105 128 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 16 27 24 27 12 9 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -158 -21 32 36 11 6 8 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 48.4 49.1 49.5 49.8 49.9 49.7 49.2 48.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.1 68.2 66.7 65.6 63.7 62.5 58.2 51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 9 10 8 8 18 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 58/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -6. -8. -10. -8. -3. 1. 5. 6. 8. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 5. 11. 17. 22. 27. 24. 13. 3. -5. -8. -12. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -18. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -16. -20. -24. -28. -32. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 12. 14. 16. 11. -3. -15. -25. -35. -45. -55.