* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HORTENSE AL081996 09/14/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 85 80 73 64 42 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 85 80 73 64 44 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 85 79 70 60 45 35 28 23 20 19 20 24 V (KT) G00R 55 55 64 64 56 43 36 34 37 40 43 45 59 SHEAR (KT) 18 27 28 31 40 51 59 60 57 40 19 18 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 4 2 6 10 2 7 17 10 2 21 21 13 SHEAR DIR 330 334 359 20 35 54 76 95 96 73 354 294 324 SST (C) 26.0 26.0 24.3 18.2 16.2 15.0 13.2 18.6 17.0 16.5 14.9 12.3 9.8 POT. INT. (KT) 118 119 106 81 75 72 74 84 78 75 73 73 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 110 99 77 72 69 72 80 74 70 69 71 70 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -52.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -51.2 -50.0 -50.3 -49.1 -49.4 -46.9 TH_E DEV (C) 13 9 7 4 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 45 45 45 48 48 37 34 39 40 43 47 50 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 36 34 36 37 37 31 23 20 21 22 28 26 27 850 MB ENV VOR 34 58 73 82 57 24 37 126 193 190 184 254 230 200 MB DIV 85 107 107 88 71 30 -6 -10 0 32 56 65 31 LAND (KM) 641 654 490 257 86 107 166 1041 1296 764 516 863 1363 LAT (DEG N) 33.4 35.7 38.2 41.2 43.8 46.5 46.9 47.0 48.4 50.5 54.3 59.7 63.3 LONG(DEG W) 69.3 68.5 66.8 65.1 63.2 58.7 50.7 39.0 27.6 21.0 17.8 20.3 33.7 STM SPEED (KT) 24 26 31 31 26 21 36 42 32 22 23 35 36 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 16/ 23 CX,CY: 6/ 22 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 428 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -8. -13. -25. -36. -44. -51. -57. -59. -60. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -11. -16. -19. -21. -22. -19. -17. -16. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -12. -15. -19. -22. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. -3. -10. -12. -11. -12. -7. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -17. -26. -48. -72. -89. -99.-103.-103.-107.-108.