* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FAUSTO EP091996 09/14/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 63 53 40 32 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 63 52 40 35 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 63 56 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 40 32 34 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 26 29 34 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -6 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 29 36 44 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 28.0 15.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 144 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.9 -53.4 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 12 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 57 57 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 20 17 14 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 21 25 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 66 30 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 5 16 56 -51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.1 25.0 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.7 109.9 108.9 108.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 19/ 10 CX,CY: 3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -18. -22. -24. -27. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -19. -23. -27. -30. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -3. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. -18. -17. -18. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -17. -30. -38. -50. -61. -72. -79. -85. -91. -93. -94.