* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP091996 09/14/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 63 56 45 40 32 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 71 63 47 38 30 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 77 71 52 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 31 36 33 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 27 33 37 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -1 -8 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 28 38 46 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.9 -53.5 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 13 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 55 55 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 18 16 14 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 7 23 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 70 31 7 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -15 59 10 -92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.1 24.7 25.6 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.7 110.0 109.2 108.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 19/ 10 CX,CY: 3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -17. -21. -26. -31. -34. -37. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -2. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -14. -15. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -25. -30. -38. -46. -53. -58. -63. -67. -67. -66.